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It looks like most likely that BYU becoming independent is imminent. I would be shocked if it doesn't happen. So the question then becomes, what happens to the rest of the MWC, including Boise State. With Utah and BYU gone the Mountain West is left with the following teams:
Air Force
Colorado State
New Mexico
TCU
UNLV
San Diego State
Wyoming
Boise State
The first thing that happens is TCU calls the Big-12 and Conference-USA immediately. The Big-12 will say, "call us in two years." But the CUSA will welcome them with open arms. With Utah and BYU gone, there is no reason for TCU to stick around. CUSA's current teams are equal with the remnants of the MWC (except for BSU). So going CUSA is a given, their travel will be greatly reduced and they have more natural rivals.
At this point, Boise renegs and goes back to the WAC. Rumor has it they have until September 1 to change their mind and can return with no questions asked. I can't verify that though.
Air Force most likely joins their other service counterparts as independents (and will continue to play BYU every year).
So now the MWC is left with CSU, UNM, SDSU, UNLV, and Wyoming. Undoubtedly, CSU, SDSU, UNLV and Wyoming give the WAC a call and join up. I am sure the WAC would take them. The WAC would have then following:
Boise State
Fresno State
Hawaii
Idaho
Louisiana Tech
Nevada
New Mexico State
San Jose State
Utah State
UNLV (giving a natural rivalry with UNR)
San Diego State (unifying the Cal State schools in one conference)
Colorado State
Wyoming
That is thirteen teams, and we still have New Mexico to discuss. Naturally, UNM could go to the WAC, and that is probably what happens. But consider the fact that Louisiana Tech is not sticking with the WAC long-term (it makes no sense being there in the first place). So they will jump ship and go to CUSA ASAP, bringing the WAC to 12 teams and thus, perfect...unless UNM joins up. My guess is UNM seriously considers following TCU to CUSA.
Currently CUSA has 12 teams and a championship game. They will undoubtedly accept TCU to bring the conference to 13, making the conference uneven and perhaps looking to add one more team. New Mexico makes sense. Albuquerque is a solid town, UNM has a great basketball program, and they would give UTEP a rival. It also wouldn't add travel distance versus the WAC considering they would have to travel to Hawaii, San Jose, and Moscow every year there. In CUSA, the farthest they travel would be Marshall or East Carolina.
This scenario brings CUSA to a 14 team conference. Shouldn't be a big deal. It also protects CUSA from future defections. It is no secret that the Big-East is investigating expansion scenarios and that Memphis, East Carolina, and UCF are the usual suspects being mentioned. Should the Big-East grab two of those teams, CUSA would simply be back to 12 teams and sitting just fine.
Sadly, BYU's decision inevitably destroys the Mountain West. I have developed a great affinity for the conference, I have great respect for and always enjoyed playing Wyoming, Colorado State, New Mexico, and Air Force. Granted, as a Ute fan, these games are gone anyway, but I hate to see them getting screwed in all this.
6 comments:
Wow have FSU and Nevada thrown everything for a loop or what? For the first time Thompson looks like a smart Conference Director. Now we'll have to wait and see what BYU does. Do they come back to the MWC and spread their revenue further (2 new teams)? Does the MWC then add a 12th team (Houston is the rumor) and go for a championship game? That might help alleviate the cost of adding new members to some degree. Or does BYU find a way to still go independent and with what if any conference tie-ins? Good news is MWC has played their hand. Now BYU has 2 weeks to make the best choice. I feel terrible for the WAC esp USU. They are done.
I will say the MWC Commish Teleconference was so bush-league. Dennis Dodd called it 50 minutes of his life he will never get back. Not to mention the flat out lies that Thompson said. How can he say the sudden addition of FSU and Nevada had nothing to do with BYU's plans to leave? How can he pretend that the addition of FSU and Nevada help the television situation at all? Their markets are 60th and 105th respectively. It was 100% about getting the upper hand with BYU. Well it may have worked.
One more thought that has been brought to my attention. BYU going independent may have nothing to do with money and everything to do with getting more exposure for the Church owned school. If that is the driving force, then I see BYU still going independent. A couple writers close to BYU are pushing this angle and I wonder if they aren't being asked to do a little selling in the same way that ESPN (I believe) obligingly started leaking the move last night. Greg Wrubell wrote a piece for the Trib saying he believes that the moves by Nevada and FSU will have no impact on BYU's decision. I suspect we'll see in the next few days. Things could move really fast and it could affect several conferences. These are exciting times!
I feel like everyone is so caught up with the conference hoo-ha that they are no longer belittling the BCS. I am sure "they" are loving all this... lame BCS.
I hate the BCS. I hope that is better.
JR, you should post your thoughts that you put in the comment section in a blog post. We need our BYU correspondent keeping us updated.
By the way, we need to move to wordpress or something. Blogspot blows and no one can find the blog. At least wordpress gives a place for people to find us. Blogspot is only good for family blogs and stuff that people want to keep off the beaten track.
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