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Wisconsin's AD said that he thinks the Big-10 would seriously consider expansion this off-season. While it is highly unlikely it would occur anytime soon (in the next 1-2 years), it is an interesting topic and would have some major ramifications in College Football. There are two considerations to take into account the first is the direct ramifications of the new pick-up on the face of CFB. The other is what would the Pac-1o do in response?
First let's look at the possible teams to get the invite and if that team went what would be the chain reaction.
1. Notre Dame - they have a standing invite to join. If they did, it wouldn't cause much of a chain reaction as they are independent. I doubt they would join though.
2. A Big Twelve team - There are 3 teams that would fit in well with the Big-1o: Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa State. That would also be the order of preference. Should one of these teams join the Big-1o, the Big-12 would have a hole to fill. What would they do?
2A. The Big-12 would then chose from the following teams in order of preference: 1. Arkansas, 2. BYU, 3. TCU, 4. Utah, 5. Tulsa. The reason BYU is ahead of TCU is that the conference would receive a lot of push back from the Texas teams regarding having another Texas team competing for top recruits.
3. A Big-East team. The order of preference would be 1. Pitt, 2. Rutgers, 3. West Virginia. If the Big-East lost they would have to expand yet again (which they may do anyway).
3A. The Big-East would then try to steal (unsuccessfully) from the ACC and go after Boston College or Maryland. But they would have to settle for Central Florida, East Carolina, or Memphis. Central Florida is obviously the best choice, but Memphis would be sweet for BBall.
4. An ACC team. Though highly unlikely, the Big-1o may try to grab Maryland or Virginia. Obviously this to would set off a chain reaction, but it is so unlikely, it is not work delving into.
5. An SEC team. Perhaps more likely than the ACC, but not much. The only team they might consider inviting would be Kentucky. It probably wouldn't be a bad move for the Wildcats, but there is no way they do it.
The real question though, especially as to impact on the Mountain West, is what does the Pac-1o do? I have no doubt that if the Big-1o expanded to 12 and held a Conference Championship Game, the Pac-1o would as well. I think the Pac-1o would send immediate invites to Utah and Colorado. If the Big-1o managed to miraculously steal Nebraska from the Big-12, the Buffaloes would jump to the Pac-1o in a heart beat.
In a worst case scenario for the MWC (and not implausible), the Big-1o expands with a Big-12 team, leaving a hole for the Big-12 to fill. The Pac-1o decides to expand and gets Utah and Colorado, adding another hole for the Big-12 totalling 2 needs. The Big-12 then goes after Arkansas and BYU. Arkansas likely refuses, so the Big-12 grabs TCU instead. Thus, the three strongest teams in the MWC are gone and the conference is left floundering.
The MWC tries to salvage itself by stealing Boise, Houston and Tulsa, but my guess is the WAC preempts the MWC and keeps Boise and steals teams like Colorado State and UNLV for themselves. Thus the MWC dies.
Wow, when I started writing this I didn't even think of that scenario as being remotely plausible, but it could very well be a reality.
In fact, I haven't figured out yet why the BCS doesn't pressure the Pac-1o to expand anyway? If the Pac-1o went and grabbed Utah and BYU (or BYU goes to the Big-12), two of the four major non-BCS teams are out of the picture, as is the argument for including the MWC or WAC among the BCS conferences. Their problems are largely solved. The really sad thing is that in all these scenario's Boise State loses. Their only hope is for the MWC to maintain solidarity, bring them in the fold and get the auto bid. There is no other hope for Boise.
Anyway, to wrap this up and get back to the original point of discussion, if the Big-1o expands I think their top choices (regardless of likelyhood) would be:
1. Notre Dame, 2. Nebraska, 3. Pittsburgh, 4. Missouri, 5. West Virginia.
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3 comments:
It's a very good post, Swint. I do have some qualms with your pecking order (WVa is a no-go for the Big 10, for instance), but you present some ideas I've never heard and yet I never once thought "that's crazy."
Why would the Big Ten pick up Iowa State? They bring absolutely nothing to the table except a built-in win for half the league.
Nebraska is the only team that makes sense. Bring an entire state's TV sets, big stadium, big name.
Missouri doesn't bring enough to raise the financial profile of the Big Ten and that will prevent them from being added. It would also sever Missouri from their biggest rival in Kansas.
Maryland is a definite "stealth" candidate for several reasons:
* Big fan base: Would add the affluent and growing Washington market to the Big Ten, along with Baltimore. DC/Bal may be smaller than NYC, but more people follow Maryland there than follow Rutgers or Syracuse in NY.
* Strong overall athletic program: Football struggled this year but is normally competitive. Maryland has won a number of national titles this decade, including both men's and women's basketball.
* Compatible academics: Maryland is a large land-grant school ranked at the same level of most Big Ten schools. Would not be out of place in the Big Ten academic consortium.
For Maryland, the Big Ten would boost interest in football, important since it just enlarged Byrd Stadium. It would elevate the university's status and likely lead to more research at College Park.
So don't rule out Maryland as a darkhorse.
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